Oscar Picks

When the nominations were announced this year, I could claim the distinction (a first for me) of not having seen even one of the movies on the ballot. In the last week, thanks to a DVD-buying spree, I’ve only slightly remedied that. Conversation about The Prestige led to its purchase and viewing, which then led to a comparative purchase of The Illusionist. I’ve now seen both, which is meaningful only in the Cinematography category. We’ve also purchased Best Picture nominees Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine; but as of this writing, only Babel has escaped the shrink-wrap. With very few sentimental favorites, my picks are purely methodical. That said, here they are.

LEAD ACTOR– Forest Whitaker. It is not insignificant that Whitaker won every single pre-Oscar award – nor, I’m sad to say, is it insignificant that he is a man of color. The Academy seems to have a reverse-racism fear of NOT awarding black nominees, which I mention here only as harbinger of picks to come; I’m sure it did not escape the notice of Academy voters that this could be the year of the black win. That said, I’m a fan of Whitaker will put my money on him.

SUPPORTING ACTOR – Though there seems to be a swell of support for Alan Arkin, he did not win any pre-Oscar awards. Not even in Boise. Though I appreciate that this category has the year’s best horse race (Haley beat Murphy in Chicago, but lost to Wahlberg with Film Critics. Wahlberg lost to Murphy at the Golden Globes) and that Eddie is generally considered a comedian, there was much talk of his surprising break-out in this role, so my money is on Murphy.

LEAD ACTRESS – Meryl Streep did win a Golden Globe, but only because the Globes honor comedies apart from dramas. Comedic performances don’t win Oscars. But you didn’t need to know that, because the only way you haven’t heard that Helen Mirren has a lock on this one (winning, like Whitaker, every pre-Oscar), you’ve been living under a rock.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Once again, one nominee won every award that leads to the big night, and that nominee was Jennifer Hudson, the American Idol reject. This is the one performance I wish I’d seen, because I truly hesitate to put my money on a TV non-star singer over an honest-to-God actor like Cate Blanchett, but knowing the libretto for Dreamgirls, I also know that you’d truly have to screw up And I’m Telling You (I’m Not Going) not to leave an impression – and by all accounts, she didn’t screw it up.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – For my money, only bet against Pixar in this category when you have a damned good reason. This year, you don't. The Globes, Producer’s Guild, and National Board of Review agree. Cars is the winner here.

ART DIRECTION – The only thing I know about Art Direction is that this year one of the nominees has a history of wins with flashy films like Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha. That nominee is up for Dreamgirls this year, another flashy musical. Consider it picked.

CINEMATOGRAPHY – It’s the only category where I’ve seen more than one nominee, but while I truly enjoyed The Prestige and The Illusionist, I wasn’t so wowed by either one from a cinematic standpoint that I’d call it a winner against movies I haven’t seen. Because voters seem to want to award Children of Men something and I don’t believe it’ll take a win for screenplay, I’ll give it a win here.

COSTUME DESIGN – Never heard of Curse of the Golden Flower. The Devil Wears Prada boasted current fashion, and The Queen was set mainly in the last 10 years. Dreamgirls’ fashion would have represented the sixties. So, as a bygone period piece without competition, Marie Antoinette gets my vote here.

DIRECTION – Yes, Eastwood is nominated here. Again. He’s won before. Scorsese is nominated here. Again. He hasn’t. All accounts say this is they year that he will.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – Here you do usually have to throw a dart, but with Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth in the mix you’ve got name recognition and a National Board of Review win. Gore won’t take the nation’s highest office, but will take the Academy’s highest honor.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT – Here you’ve got a Chinese AIDS orphan, folks picking through toxic dumps, kids in the performing arts, and a pianist who loses one of his hands. In another year, the kids Rehearsing a Dream might take the sentimental votes from actors, but the true artistic heartstring puller this year is the man without Two Hands.

FILM EDITING – I watched Babel last night and could conceivably vote for it. After all, the editing team has already won once for Traffic. I haven’t watched The Departed, but it’s that team’s sixth nod, after the Aviator, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, Woodstock, and Gangs of New York. So why, then, am I putting my money on United 93? Well, I read something that suggested that it’s the reason this film snuck into the Best Direction category (right along with Babel and The Departed). And hell, the only way you win an Oscar pool is to have a couple picks that nobody else does. Of course, that’s also how you lose….

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – No foreign language film which spills over into five of the other categories, like Pan’s Labyrinth does, should be ignored. Mexico’s El Laberinto del Fauno for the win.

MAKEUP – The folks who did Click won for Lemony Snicket last year or the year before, but damn… has anybody heard of Click outside of this category? My guess is that many voters won’t have seen it and the ones who have seen Pan’s Labyrinth will be honoring that instead.

ORIGINAL SCORE – How’s this for fuzzy logic? Thomas Newman (The Good German) has been nominated 8 times now and never won. Philip Glass (Notes on a Scandal) has been nominated 3 times without winning [speed past]. Santaolalla (Babel) did win his only other nod, for Brokeback Mountain [slow down] but I watched the movie last night and don’t remember the score at all. Javier Navarrete (Pan’s Labyrinth) and Alexandre Desplat (The Queen) are unknowns to this category [stop]. Pan’s Labyrinth will take other prizes, so if The Queen is listenable at all, this will be the category where that Best Picture nominee is honored.

ORIGINAL SONG – Logic that works in other categories would suggest that the three nominated songs from Dreamgirls will cancel each other out and leave the win to Melissa Etheridge’s I Need to Wake Up (An Inconvenient Truth) or Randy Newman’s Our Town (Cars), but with a Golden Globe win for the Beyonce-sung Listen, I’m betting Oscar gold falls here.

MOTION PICTURE – It speaks highly of Little Miss Sunshine that a comedy made it into this category, but despite a nod from the Producer’s Guild (which, until recent years, was the best indicator of Oscar gold here), that’s also what will keep it from winning. That, and its director wasn’t nominated. Film Editing is another category to look at here, and Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen failed to get nods there. All five films have screenplay writing nods, so the two top contenders seem to be Babel and The Departed. With Scorsese a near-lock for the directorial gold and a recent trend to split the director and picture honors, I’m giving Babel the leg-up in this category.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM – I’ve seen Maestro and it made me laugh, but I’m betting something else in this category can cream it. No Time for Nuts also stars familiar characters from something I haven’t seen (Ice Age). A squirrel finds a time machine? Cute, but… nah. The Danish Poet? I caught a small clip of it – the story might be wonderful, but the animation is crude and the accented narrator hard to understand. Lifted, about a teen alien going through abduction school and spaceship driving school at the same time sounds like rip-roaring good Pixar fun and I’d love to see it, but I’m betting that the sadly beautiful story of Hans Christian Andersen’s The Little Matchgirl will win the night.

LIVE ACTION SHORT – An African girl’s stories of hope, a wife leaving her mother to cook and clean for her son and husband, a rest-home father and his busy son, an evangelist in love with a married woman, and a musical comedy about competing falafel stands. Though I’m amused at the idea of West Bank Story, I marked the hapless father and son combo abandoned by Mom on my ballot: Eramos Pocos.

SOUND EDITING – The difference between this and Sound Mixing is simple once you know it: editing creates sounds that don’t already exist, mixing manages sounds that do. The team behind Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest also created the winning sounds behind the cries of a giant ape from Skull Island and the Orcs of Middle Earth. Not to mention wins for Titanic and Pearl Harbor as well. I say Pirates steal the gold.

SOUND MIXING – The Pirates won’t take this one as musicals like Chicago and Ray have set the (ahem) gold standard in this category. Dreamgirls – a musical mixed by the same team that mixed the winners above as well as Gladiator, Black Hawk Down, and Speed – takes this one.

VISUAL EFFECTS – I really wanted to vote for Superman Returns here, as the team behind Lord of the Rings, Gladiator, and The Matrix are behind it, but overwhelming support for Pirates in this category sent me sailing with the tide.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Come on, was Borat really “written?” Children of Men, Little Children, and Notes on a Scandal didn’t earn Best Picture nods; if any of them had been favored enough to take a runner-up slot for Best Picture, they’d get the consolation prize here. None of them were. That distinction goes to The Departed.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Did I mention consolation prizes? With only The Departed competing in the Adapted Screenplay category, the other four Best Picture nominees are competing in this one Having picked Babel for the big win, I predict that this is where Little Miss Sunshine finds its support.

And there you have my 2007 picks.

Tune in to ABC tonight for the 79^th Annual Academy Awards (5p/8e) hosted by Ellen Degeneres!